WTO chief braces for a fresh fight with Donald Trump

LONDON — He’s the former president notorious for his racially-charged rhetoric and a promise to impose blanket tariffs on all U.S. imports.

She’s the first African woman to lead the World Trade Organization (WTO), championing causes like climate change, gender equality and development in trade.

Donald Trump and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala may stand worlds apart ideologically, but they share a common goal: both want a second term.

Their paths first crossed in 2020, when Trump as president blocked Okonjo-Iweala’s appointment to the top trade job.

This time around, the WTO has brought forward its election process by nearly two months from its Dec. 1 start — in a move former and current officials believe was designed to avoid any repeat obstruction from Trump should he win.

The WTO strenuously denies this, saying the legitimacy of the process is “beyond question” and “fully transparent.”

But the decision hasn’t gone unnoticed. Clete Willems, a former trade official under Trump, decried it as “completely politically tone deaf.”

“By trying to expedite this process, you are essentially taking the position that you don’t care what the views of a potential Trump administration might be,” he told POLITICO. “You are therefore trying to undermine those views. And the reality is that, yes, the Trump administration has strong views about some of the inequities in the system.”

Member countries have until Nov. 8, just three days after the U.S. election, to propose a rival. If no-one steps forward, Okonjo-Iweala will secure her second term unopposed.

POLITICO spoke to current Geneva-based officials, as well as those who used to be involved in the WTO, to take stock of her record and anticipate the battle that may lie ahead.

Who will step forward?

So far, no challenger to Okonjo-Iweala has thrown their hat into the ring.

“Even if nobody runs against her, I don’t know that you can take that as an overwhelming mandate for her,” said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation. 

One Geneva-based official, granted anonymity to speak freely, said that when an accelerated selection process was first floated, a few members “didn’t say anything.” It wasn’t just the U.S. — India, Korea and the Gulf countries were also keeping quiet.

Okonjo-Iweala’s mandate attracts both criticism and praise. She breaks the mold of previous director-generals (DGs) through her roughly 25-year experience working as a development economist at the World Bank, and has brought bold strategies to an organization often criticized as bureaucratic and slow-moving.

“Very often, you think of the WTO as a sort of consensus-oriented body and the leader is there to facilitate consensus,” said SEC Newgate’s Allie Renison, a former trade adviser to the U.K. government who has known Okonjo-Iweala personally for a number of years. “She’s taken on a more direct, proactive role.”

The DG frequently travels outside of Geneva to raise awareness of the WTO and engage with organizations like the climate and biodiversity COPs, and the World Bank and IMF on supply chains and climate.

While some — like Peter Ungphakorn, who formerly worked in the WTO secretariat — believe Okonjo-Iweala will steer the WTO towards a more “think tank” model with “more glitz and less substance,” others — like Sidley Austin’s international trade lawyer Nicolas Lockhart — view this activism as making the organization “more relevant.”

“Because members are not used to DGs being proactive — and the DG has been quite proactive — I think at times it has challenged orthodoxies,” said Lockhart, who was a former legal adviser at the WTO’s Appellate Body.

Not a trade person

Okonjo-Iweala’s previous experience in the World Bank focusing on development has, however, haunted her time as leader. It drew harsh criticism from Trump’s former trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, who later branded her “China’s ally in Geneva” in his memoir.

“His stated view was that Ngozi doesn’t know the WTO and is not a trade person,” said Keith Rockwell, a former WTO spokesperson and senior research fellow at the Hinrich Foundation think tank.

There are some members who “are really annoyed” about the director-general’s development focus on gender, indigenous rights, and climate, who Elms says see it as “everything except for trade.”

It’s not a view limited to allies of Trump, either. Harry Broadman, a former trade official under the Clinton administration, said “Ngozi was a World Bank person, a finance minister, not a trade person.”

“She’s smart, she’s very good, you know, diplomatically, but, and there are very few people who have the arcane understanding of the WTO,” he said. 

Yet, her supporters like her development focus. U.K. Ambassador to Geneva Simon Manley praised her “forward-looking agenda on green digital services and inclusive trade,” emphasizing he has rarely “met somebody so committed, so hard working, so visionary, and so networked.”

U.K. Trade Minister Douglas Alexander, an old colleague of hers at the World Bank, emphasized “her enduring concern for the interests of the global south as well as her insights as a former finance minister.”

“We see her as the right woman, in the right place, at the right time,” he told POLITICO.

Her delivery could be better 

As she eyes a second term, the question remains whether Okonjo-Iweala’s tenure has produced substantive progress.

Critics point to only modest achievements: a weak Covid intellectual property agreement and an incomplete fisheries deal, aimed at limiting harmful subsidies that lead to overfishing. The lack of tangible results isn’t all on Okonjo-Iweala, though, with the WTO struggling to make progress as it relies on consensus from all members.

This year’s ministerial conference in Abu Dhabi was widely seen as disappointing, with few tangible outcomes beyond extending a digital services tax moratorium by one year. 

A Geneva-based former official said that “they’ve heard a couple of times she’s so focused on delivering results, especially if they’re going to look good, that she’s not as thoughtful on how the WTO can best contribute to important conversations.” 

Other examples included a “secretively handled” McKinsey review of the organization that never saw the light of day, and a global carbon pricing initiative presented to members without prior permission, which irritated many, said the former official. “Everybody came to the meeting with instructions to be critical in some way, and so the meeting was difficult. In fact, the proposal was creative and has merit,” they said.

“It’s a good illustration of a broader dynamic where the DG’s innovative, she’s thoughtful, but sometimes people aren’t ready for that, and the ideas also weren’t delivered as effectively as they could have been.”

Trouble ahead

The WTO’s accelerated election process is meanwhile ruffling feathers.

Norwegian Ambassador Petter Ølberg, who chairs the General Council, the WTO’s highest decision-making body, informed members he “detected convergence” to begin the process earlier. That angered U.S. officials, with a USTR spokesperson expressing concern over that “assumption of convergence rather than consensus,” which requires unanimous member agreement. 

“Detecting convergence? There’s no decision taken? He decides?” said Rockwell. “This makes people think that this is an administration that doesn’t like the rules, because the rules are not being followed.” 

Rockwell and other former officials believe Okonjo-Iweala orchestrated this shift, fearing that a Trump victory and Lighthizer appointment could lead to her re-election being blocked. 

Ølberg denied this, telling POLITICO it was initiated earlier than usual “at the direct request of a group of WTO members,” with the backing of “an overwhelming majority of the membership, following comprehensive consultations.”

“Nominations remain open until November 8. During this period, all WTO members have the right to submit nominations, and the process will proceed fully within the bounds of established rules,” he added.

The accelerated selection process follows calls from the African Group of countries at the WTO to allow more time to prepare for the next ministerial conference. 

“You have these conferences every two years,” Rockwell shot back. “That’s not a reason.” He warned a Trump victory could lead to “a very tense situation” down the line. 

Geopolitical fragmentation

Trump’s unpredictability seriously complicates matters for the global trade body.

“The WTO has far bigger problems than whether or not Ngozi gets re-elected,” said Hinrich Foundation’s Elms. “Like, the man is clearly gearing up to either demolish the whole institution or at least ignore it.” 

The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

If Trump does win, Okonjo-Iweala could face her toughest challenge yet.

His proposal for aggressive tariffs — at least 10 percent globally and 60 percent on Chinese goods — could further fragment global trade, a trend that worries many officials.

“We’ve already seen signs of trade fragmentation on geopolitical lines since the first wave of Trump,” said another Geneva-based official, also granted anonymity to speak candidly. “The movement towards fragmentation is something we are concerned about.”

In the end, Okonjo-Iweala’s mission for a WTO that includes all players will face a defining test if both she and Trump secure their respective second terms. 

Okonjo-Iweala often leans on anecdotes as she lays out her vision for global trade. “She likes to tell a lot of stories about Rwanda,” said SEC Newgate’s Renison, with the WTO emphasizing how individuals in a war-ravaged nation were able to build small businesses and engage with the world trade market.

“I think she likes those kinds of anecdotes, because it’s trying to place the developing world as moving beyond its stereotype of being dependent on assistance and actually becoming players in their own right,” she said. 

It’s a story of survival and thriving against the odds. Okonjo-Iweala will be hoping the WTO can similarly adapt in the face of massive challenges ahead.

Emilio Casalicchio contributed to this report.