Superbugs forecast to kill nearly 40 million people by 2050

Drug-resistant pathogens could cause more than 39 million deaths over the next 25 years, according to new estimates published Tuesday in The Lancet.

The study also predicts that 169 million deaths will be associated with drug-resistant infections in that time.

The researchers base their forecasts on analysis of recent deaths and the impact of measures to curb AMR deaths over time. They found that more than 1 million people died each year as a result of drug-resistant infections between 1990 and 2021.

During that time, AMR deaths among children under 5 declined by 50 percent, while those among people aged 70 and older increased by more than 80 percent.

These trends are expected to continue, with AMR deaths among children under 5 projected to halve by 2050 and deaths among people 70 years and over expected to more than double.

The study, conducted by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project, forecasts that AMR deaths will increase steadily in the coming decades “if remediation measures are not in place.”

The authors estimate that 1.91 million people could die as a direct result of AMR in 2050 — an increase of almost 70 percent compared to the 1.14 million deaths in 2021. AMR is also projected to contribute to the death of 8.22 million per year — an increase of nearly 75 percent on the 4.71 million associated deaths in 2021. 

AMR was directly responsible for 1.27 million deaths in 2019 and contributed to a further 4.95 million deaths, according to 2022 GRAM study. The authors noted that the dip in AMR-related deaths in 2021 ­— compared to 2019 — was likely due to the measures imposed during the Covid-19 pandemic, adding that they believe it to be temporary.

“These findings highlight that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing,” said study author Mohsen Naghavi, professor at the University of Washington. “Understanding how trends in AMR deaths have changed over time, and how they are likely to shift in future, is vital to make informed decisions to help save lives.”

Global leaders will gather at the United Nations General Assembly high-level meeting next week to sign off on a much-awaited political declaration which will lay out global plans to tackle AMR.