Scholz survives as his party edges far-right AfD in Brandenburg election

WANDLITZ, Germany — Embattled German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dodged a bullet on Sunday as his Social Democrats (SPD) held off the far right in a key regional election in the eastern state of Brandenburg.

The victory gives Scholz, who is struggling to hold his fractious three-party coalition together, a reprieve — at least for the time being. His approval ratings have hit record lows, and he was even asked not to campaign in Brandenburg due to his unpopularity with voters.

The SPD finished first in Brandenburg, according to preliminary projections, with 30.7 percent of the vote, followed by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 29.4 percent. A new populist-leftist party known as the BSW came in third with a stunning 13.4 percent. The center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), who lead national polls by a substantial margin, placed fourth with 12.1 percent.

 A loss in Brandenburg, a rural state surrounding Berlin that the SPD has controlled since German reunification in 1990, would likely have dashed Scholz’s plans to seek another term as chancellor while also pressuring him to clear the way for a snap election.

Despite the win, exit polls suggested that neither Scholz nor the SPD had much to celebrate. About 75 percent of those who cast ballots for the SPD said they did so not out of genuine affinity for the party, but rather to prevent the AfD from gaining power.

National issues, particularly migration, which Scholz has struggled to manage amid a massive influx of refugees, dominated the campaign and drove voters to the AfD, which bested its 2019 result by six percentage points.

The Greens, which serve as a junior partner to the SPD at the national level, appear to have fared less well. Preliminary results showed the party on the cusp of missing the five-percent threshold for entry into the state parliament. The liberal Free Democrats, the smallest member of Scholz’s coalition, garnered less than one percent of the vote.

The surprise of the night came from the leftist BSW, a party founded earlier this year by Sahra Wagenknecht, a former leader of the Left party who started her own eponymous movement after falling out with the party. The strong showing puts the BSW in the running to build a coalition alongside the SPD, which has ruled out governing with the AfD.

Polls leading up to election day showed the AfD ahead by a whisker, though within the margin of error. Earlier this month the party placed first in a state election in Thuringia and second in Saxony, ratcheting up the pressure on Scholz’s SPD to hold Brandenburg.

The SPD was helped by its popular leader in Brandenburg, Dietmar Woidke, whom more than 60 percent of voters said they viewed favorably. Woidke, who has served as the state’s premier since 2013, said he would resign if the SPD didn’t win the election.

“We achieved a historic come-from-behind victory,” a visibly relieved Woidke, whose party trailed the AfD by several points as recently as August, told his supporters Sunday night.

A key aspect of Woidke’s campaign strategy was to keep Scholz out of sight. Though the chancellor resides in the state, Woidke banned him from campaign events due to his deep unpopularity.

The SPD received an unexpected boost after the premier of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer of the CDU, endorsed Woidke, telling center-right voters it would make more sense to back the SPD and block the AfD than to support the CDU. The unorthodox move by Kretschmer, a popular figure in eastern Germany, appears to have helped push the SPD over the line, though it also contributed the CDU’s worst-ever result in the east.

The SPD’s victory came largely as a result of support from voters over 60, 37 percent of whom supported the party, according to exit polls. The AfD led the field among voters between the ages of 30 and 59, underscoring the inroads it has made in the German electorate in recent years.

AfD leaders blamed the media for their second-place finish, pointing in particular to what they regarded as skewed coverage by Germany’s powerful public broadcasters. Even so, Hans-Christoph Berndt, the AfD’s lead candidate in Brandenburg, predicted it was only a matter of time before the the party took power.

“Germany’s future is blue,” he said after the results came in, referring to the AfD’s party color. “The front for Germany stands.”

This story is being updated.