Dead even: POLITICO snap poll shows stark division on Walz-Vance VP debate

Talk about a divided nation: There was no decisive winner in the first-and-only vice presidential debate of the 2024 election.

Asked who won Tuesday’s debate, voters were split 50-50 over whether it was JD Vance or Tim Walz, according to a POLITICO/Focaldata snap poll of likely voters conducted just after the two faced off in a studio in New York City.

The dead-heat results are a fitting reflection of the country’s hyper-polarized politics — particularly as it enters the final stretch of the closest presidential election in years.

A largely civil exchange that was short on breakout viral moments, the debate left watchers mostly retreating to their partisan corners. The survey found that party identification strongly shaped the perceptions of people who watched the debate: Democrats overwhelmingly sided with Walz, while Republicans picked Vance as the winner.

But Walz had a commanding advantage with independents, 58 percent of whom sided with the Minnesota governor while 42 percent gave Vance the edge.

Walz’s strongest ratings came from younger people, particularly those ages 25-34, those with college degrees, and Black and Latino respondents — all key components of the Democratic coalition that powered President Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump in 2020.

Vance, meanwhile, performed best with people over the age of 55, white voters and those without a college degree.

Both men and women were evenly split 50-50 on choosing a debate winner, bucking the widening gender gap present in recent presidential polls.

Respondents were similarly divided on which contender would be a better vice president, with an equal 47-47 split between Vance and Walz, with 7 percent unsure.

Walz again had the advantage among independents, with 44 percent preferring him as vice president versus 36 percent choosing Vance.

But Democrats shouldn’t get too giddy about his performance with this coveted demographic: Independent voters were also far more likely to say they didn’t tune in to the debate.

The 90-minute debate may be a boon to Vance in another way — helping cut into his historically high negatives for a vice-presidential pick.

The POLITICO/Focaldata poll surveyed both people who did and did not watch the debate. Among those who did, 51 percent said Vance would be ready to serve as president if Trump was unable to complete his term, while 38 percent said he was not ready. That marked a notable improvement over those who didn’t see the debate — just 34 percent of those respondents thought Vance could step in as president, while 43 percent did not.

The debate also burnished perceptions of Walz’s readiness for office, albeit not as dramatically. Respondents who watched it said by a 48-42 margin that he would be ready to serve as president if Harris could not complete her term. Among those who didn’t watch, only 36 percent thought Walz would be ready to be commander in chief, while 41 percent said he was not.

The POLITICO/Focaldata poll surveyed 902 adults, with a likely voter weighted sample of 525. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.3 percent.