Could American voters abroad hold all the cards?

The November election could come down to a hair’s breadth margin, and both Democrats and Republicans are looking to rack up as many votes as they can from American voters abroad.

For the first time in a presidential cycle, Democrats are allocating significant money to the effort to help push their party over the finish line. The Democratic National Committee and private donors are putting more than $450,000 into a get-out-the-vote campaign aimed at reaching Americans from swing states living abroad — a number the State Department puts at nearly 9 million. The program includes direct advertising on traditional media and social media, billboards across Canada, mailers and in-person gatherings.

“We’re going to win this election by engaging every eligible voter, no matter where they live, and our investment shows our commitment to leaving no stone left unturned,” said DNC Deputy Communications Director Abhi Rahman.

The project to turn out Democrats Abroad builds on a pilot program in 2022. Many Americans are in the military, work for private business or are students at international universities — yet only a small percentage vote. Starting Saturday, ballots will arrive in the inboxes of Americans living outside of the U.S.

Republicans, too, are trying to reach voters abroad with online efforts. The Republican National Committee has a Republicans Overseas website aimed at educating voters on how to get a ballot and send it in.

“The RNC is working hand-in-glove with the Trump Campaign to reach all eligible voters — including those abroad — to turn out the GOP electorate for an unprecedented win on Nov. 5,” RNC Spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement.

Voters are required to follow the rules of their home states in sending in ballots. Some require a printed ballot while others allow for electronic delivery, said Bruce Heyman, the former U.S. ambassador to Canada who is co-heading the Americans Abroad effort. And there are state-by-state variances on whether ballots should be returned in hand by Election Day or postmarked beforehand.

About 1.6 million people living abroad come from the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Democrats Abroad group estimates. In 2020, about 44,000 votes across Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin votes won Joe Biden the presidency.

“We saw in 2016 that there were a lot of Americans in Canada, many of whom are Michiganders, who didn’t vote. And then we looked at other battleground border states and saw the close margins and realized voters abroad are a big factor,” said Heyman.

He and his wife, Vicki, raised $150,000 for the Americans Abroad get-out-the-vote effort, on top of the DNC putting in $300,000.

While voting from abroad increased from 2016 to 2020, Heyman says November’s overseas votes could be definitive because more Americans have returned to living abroad since the start of the pandemic.

The effort has high-profile support, including from Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, who took part in a recent online-get-out-the-vote effort for Americans abroad.

Overseas voters can “make the difference” in the election, Pelosi said in a video on her social media channels.

Asked if the Democrats’ voter education effort might also get Republicans to cast ballots, Heyman said he’s not worried. “From all the analysis that we’ve done and seen, something like 80 percent of Americans abroad vote Democrat,” said Heyman. “It’s because they care about foreign policy and the stature of America in the world and are very worried about a potential Trump return.”